Отправлено 11 ноября 2008 - 18:58
[opened]
Russia's Rouble Slumps Further As CBR Does Not Intervene: More Devaluation to Come?
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* Nov 11: Rouble weakened more than 1% vs. its dual currency basket (45% EUR and 55% USD) as the Russian central bank (CBR) refrained from intervening at the RUB/basket 30.40 level where the rouble had been trading since beginning of Sep-08. Rouble has fallen 16% against the dollar since the beginning of August and is now at early 2007 levels
* Danske: 'devaluation' came earlier than anticipated, expected the CBR would defend the rouble at RUB/basket 30.40 for rest of 2008; market participants expected to increase bets on a weaker rouble, and this could add to pressure on Russian currency
* CBR suggested that rouble weakening could come - the CBR has been trying to relieve selling pressure on the rouble through the control of its FX assets position and the limitation of FX swap operations with other banks. Controlled and moderate rouble weakening may (ING)
* Troika Dialog: the currency may slump as much as 30% in the event of a devaluation
* GS: there is a strong political preference for gradual depreciation over a steep devaluation, even though the central bank would prefer the latter approach (via Bloomberg)
* CBR already cut off access to its money auction of those banks which increase their foreign currency exposure in an attempt to address mounting speculation against the ruble, triggered by anxiety rather than deterioration in economic fundamentals (Alfa)
* Oct 20: Following devaluation rumors, the CBR cut the currency swap facility, which increased foreign banks’ demand for ruble liquidity and pushed up local interbank rates to over 20%. It also appreciated the rouble by 1% against the basket
* With the oil price falling and Russia's growth slowing, rouble depreciation may be inevitable but the CBR wants to make sure it doesn't fall too quickly
* KIT: Limiting currency swap transactions helped investors keep and increase currency positions, increasing demand for dollars. Investors cut off from currency swaps and lacking access to unsecured loans, faced a short-term substantial liquidity gap which they tried to meet on the interbank market. But devaluation should not be ruled out
* An increase in the instability of the ruble exchange rate could trigger a flight from banking deposits and decrease banking sector liquidity
* Ulyukayev (CBR): currency purchases in August totaled about zero as the bank bought and sold currency. It bought around $100 billion so far this year(via Bloomberg)
* In July, the Russian central bank was trying to slow the rouble's rise and inject two-way liquidity by widening the trading band to detract hot money. It widened the band from +/-0.85% to +/-1.2% around the central parity rate. CBR tripled the volumes of its daily interventions in the FX market to offset the rise in the demand for roubles on the back of the higher hydrocarbon prices
* In longer term, Russia intending to speed up process to inflation targeting and free float of rouble
Nov 11, 2008
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