Отправлено 13 ноября 2008 - 11:01
* Nov 12: Global writedowns by banks, insurers, GSEs reach $950bn, capital raised around $900bn.
* GFSR October 2008: IMF raises global loss estimate to $1.4 trillion from $945 billion estimate in March 2008
* Roubini: Including lagging consumer and auto loan and HEL provisions, writedowns could reach $2T
* August, Beltran/Pounder/Thomas (Fed Board): Flow of funds analysis shows that foreigners hold 39% of ABS with U.S. underlying collateral--> Using same assumptions as IMF with 20% hypothetical markdown, global mark-to-market losses amount to $1.2trillion, of which $475bn will be taken abroad.
* July 6: Hedge fund Bridgewater Associates estimates financial losses at $1.6 trillion.
* June 18: John Paulson: global writedowns and losses from the credit crisis may reach $1.3 trillion.
* Bill Gross (PIMCO): Expect $1T in financial losses. In contrast to prior cycles, the cost of credit is going up, not down--> sign that deleveraging may go on for longer than currently expected.
* July 17 FT (via nc): Traders forecast banking stress to last until 2010.
* Roubini: Problem in the US today is not only illiquidity as it was in the near collapse of LTCM in 1998; it is rather a problem of solvency; cannot be solved with liquidity injections.
* Munchau, Rajan: Financial innovation and securitization may spread credit risk at cost of higher systemic risk. Risk shared is not always risk halved if it leads to contagion instead of diversification--> watch higher asset class correlation/implied correlation in structured products.
* Borio (BIS): The primary cause of financial instability has always been, and will continue to be, overextension in risk-taking and balance-sheets
JUMP FUCKERS
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